Last week has been a volatility showcase that is rarely seen in the gold market. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent gold flying past its 2011 high and up to $1,976, the highest level in a year and a half. The next day gold posted considerable losses and ended Friday’s trading session around $1,890
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What does the war between Russia and Ukraine imply for the gold market? Initially, the conflict was supportive of gold prices and the price of gold soared on Thursday. However, the rally was very short-lived, as the very next day, gold prices fell and gold’s performance looked like “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
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As the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, it is worth being better prepared for a possible crisis. Does that mean it pays to have some gold up your sleeve? I have to confess something. I always laughed at preppers. C’mon, who would take these freaks seriously?
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I’m not encouraging you to believe U.S. inflation this time around could lead to the collapse of America. But I think it is good to take the words of Charlie Munger to heart and recognize the potential of inflation to have a significant impact on economies and personal savings.
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Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints and inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon. Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher.
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The war has begun: after a few weeks of tense situation, Russia has taken a radical step and started an invasion of Ukraine. How will this affect gold? Well, risk aversion has soared amid the conflict. Equities are plunging while safe-haven assets are soaring.
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One good thing that can be said about this is that rate hikes get priced in far ahead and in succession. As far as the markets are concerned, three rate hikes have already happened. But that’s where speculators stop doing gold any favors.
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It’s a funny bull market, this gold thing. Unloved by the mainstream commentariat, who desperately cry “barbarous relic”, and by the bitcoin bettors, who call it an “ugly yellow rock”, its price is now with a hair’s width of the all-time high. $1,905, as this Report is being written…
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The current military tensions and the Fed’s sluggishness favor gold bulls, but not all events are positive for the yellow metal. What should we be aware of? It may be quiet on the Western Front, but quite the opposite on the Eastern Front. Russia has accumulated well over 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine
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In an unprecedented move sidestepping normal due process guarantees, Trudeau ordered banks, insurance companies, and even cryptocurrency exchanges to close the accounts of anyone deemed to be involved in the Freedom Convoy.
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A funny thing is happening on the way to higher interest rates: The price of gold and silver also is moving higher. Since the beginning of the month, the spot gold price has increased by 4% and silver has jumped by about 4.5%. And this is amid all the talk of rate increases coming faster and in larger quantities…
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There are many who believe that when interest rates go up, gold gets weaker. The truth is, that gold can rise with interest rates and can also rise with the markets. What’s important to remember is that beyond all the economic fundamentals, asset prices go up or down based on the inflows and outflows of money.
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If only you weren’t in a coma last year, you would have probably noticed that prices had been surging recently. For instance, America finished the year with a shocking CPI annual rate of 7.1%, the highest since June 1982
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Gold is an excellent portfolio diversifier, as it is negatively correlated with risk assets, and – importantly – this negative correlation increases as these assets sell off. Hence, adding gold to a portfolio could diversify it, improving its risk-adjusted return, and also provide liquidity to meet liabilities in times of market stress.
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In his new research paper, Wharton finance and economics professor Urban Jermann proposed that investors and market participants have been misinterpreting the true value of gold as an investment asset. In particular, more attention should be paid to…
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Americans get fed a lot of BS when it comes to price inflation. Prices in the U.S. are rising faster than they were in the late 1970s when gasoline shortages triggered an economic crisis. Today, supply chain disruptions and exploding prices are also nearing crisis levels.
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Both China and Russia play hugely important roles in the global economy. Both face economic sanctions from the United States. And both are eyeing long-term strategies for shifting the locus of global trade away from the Federal Reserve Note “dollar.”
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The ECB has awoken from its ultra-dovish lethargy. Lagarde opened the door to an interest rate hike, which gave the European Central Bank a hawkish demeanor. Does it also imply more bullish gold?
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What started as a small website run and managed by a few gold-obsessed friends has grown to a scale none of us could ever have imagined – and we’re SO pleased it’s been such a useful tool to so many investors – but we need to make some changes to cope with this growth…
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Has the Supply Chain Crisis Killed Romance? Expressing our love could be in danger due to recent flower shortage. It’s one thing not to be able to buy toilet paper, but now expressing our love is in danger when we can’t buy flowers.
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What if this was one of your publicly declared New Year’s resolutions: “This year I’m going to protect my retirement account.” Here’s the thing – the moment you say it out loud, you and everyone around you will wonder why you’ve waited even this long to do something that clearly is so important.
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The recent explosion in inflation rates caused by runaway debt-funded federal spending and Fed money printing has sparked renewed interest in state legislatures in the role gold and silver play in hedging against systemic risks.
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The latest employment report strongly supports the Fed’s hawkish narrative. Surprisingly, gold has shown remarkable resilience against it so far – especially given that the surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls came despite the disruption to consumer-facing businesses from the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
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UBS strategists said that gold’s “tried-and-tested insurance characteristics” had again shined brightly, especially compared to other common portfolio diversifiers, including digital assets such as bitcoin. (Recently, bitcoin’s price has been more closely correlated with stocks than previously, reducing its effectiveness as a hedge.)
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Americans are waking up to some uncomfortable truths. One of these is the fact that government bureaucrats and the corporate media regularly lie about what is going on in the world. The real inflation numbers may be close to double what’s reported officially. Alternative data sets are out there, but, predictably…
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Beware, the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could lift real interest rates! For gold, this poses a risk of prices wildly rolling down. The first FOMC meeting in 2022 is behind us. What can we expect from the US central bank this year and how will it affect the price of gold?
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What does gold’s behavior in January imply for its 2022 outlook? Well, I must admit that I expected gold’s performance to be worse. Last month showed that gold simply don’t want to either go down (or up), but it still prefers to go sideways, glued to the $1,800 level.
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The U.S. reached a $30 trillion milestone this week. Instead of signifying a great achievement, though, it serves as a dire warning for American workers, investors, and retirees.
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