US Initials Jobless Claims Pickup into Rate Optimism

The four-week initial claims average ticks higher to 271K.

Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 28 May, 2015
By Christopher Lemieux
Senior Analyst at Bullion.Directory; Twitter @Lemieux_26

This rise in claims were “unexpected” my economists and occurred just as optimism for a Fed funds rate boost regained its footing. The general consensus was for a drop of 5,000.

Continuing claims climbed 11,000 to just over 2.22 million. Another miss by economists, expecting a decline to 2.208 million.

Today’s initial claims print grew by 20,000 over the course of a month, but still hover around 15 year lows.

The data picture remains rather mixed ahead of what many believe will be a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June. And if not June, than September; If not September than December.

Wall Street economists are optimistic:

The recent downtrend in #joblessclaims is the main reason we expect a 275k #NFP gain when the May data are reported next Friday

— Joseph A. LaVorgna (@Lavorgnanomics) May 27, 2015

The recent “downtrend” in jobless claims is adding 20,000 more claims since April 30. The initial claims really has been stuck in a range, bouncing from the 260,000-level to roughly 300,000.

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