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Fed Watching: Why I Prefer Not To


While the Fed voyeurs spend their time trying to get a peek in the window at Janet Yellen & co, here’s why I prefer not to.

Terry Kinder precious metals analysisBullion.Directory precious metals analysis 18 March, 2015
By Terry Kinder

Investor, Technical Analyst

Spending time watching the Fed appears, to me, to be today’s equivalent of watching the Soviet Politburo during the Cold War. Without a doubt, it was important for someone to watch the Politburo. It’s also difficult to completely ignore the Fed. Why is that? People end up watching the Fed, like the Politburo during the Cold War, because of the great harm it can do. Otherwise, it’s really a waste of time.



Everywhere you look on Earth, in our solar system, galaxy and universe there are cycles. From the rotation of the Earth, to solar cycles, to the sun traveling around the galaxy and more, everything that happens is based on the same universal laws that are behind math, physics and geometry.

Martin Armstrong touched briefly on cycles as related to the flow of time here.

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That cycles exist and are predictable is something I believe many find deeply disturbing. This idea stands in direct contradiction to several widely held beliefs:

  • We control our own destiny
  • Prices are random and cannot be predicted



The idea that we control our own destiny in the middle of randomness (random weather, random events, random prices, etc.) is an interesting contradiction. Shifting back to the Fed, Yellen and company offer up the illusion to the public that they are in control, reinforcing the idea that individually, we are able to exercise influence in a world seemingly filled with random events.

Sadly, by not considering the cyclical nature of the universe and the laws that govern everything, the Fed, and society as a collection of individuals, ignores reality and spends a good deal of time fighting unmovable forces.

The Problem

One of the interesting insights that Martin Armstrong has come up with is the idea that government attempts to manipulate economic cycles only worsens them and inevitably leads to the destruction of society. Perhaps he is not the first to have come up with this idea, but he has certainly stated it clearly and eloquently through his work.

Another interesting aspect of what Armstrong does, is his use of a computer filled with thousands of years of price and other data to forecast economic and political events. This, of course, represents a very direct threat to many entrenched interests. Why? If a machine can more or less accurately predict what will occur in the future, then there is little use for politicians, the central bankers at the Fed, and many others in government and other institutions who now, at least in theory, help decide our collective fate.

The Solution

For better or worse, it is unlikely that government or some other organization or institution, is going to be able to implement a system which utilizes Armstrong’s computer for the benefit of society. Human nature, being what it is, makes it more likely that the Fed and other institutions of government will plow ahead with their plans regardless of the harm they cause. In the end, the solution is to break free from old ways of thinking and doing things.

Ignoring the Fed, news, opinion from any quarter and, instead, understanding the underlying laws that create cycles is one of the most important things you can do. You empower what you pay attention to. Collectively, we empower the Fed by continuing to listen to the foolish nonsense they spew in their minutes. Countless hours are spent trying to read the tea leaves. Will the Fed continue to be patient? Perhaps they will. Perhaps they won’t. However, I have run out of patience listening to nonsense spouted by people in power who ought to know better. I have run out of patience for those who empower the Fed by spreading the myth that what they say or do truly matters versus the cycles that in actuality move events.

The Fed, like an accident by the side of the road, is hard not to watch. However, it’s safer to keep your eyes focused on what’s ahead rather than looking back to see the wreck that is, was, and always will be the Fed.

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