Mike Maharrey

Mozambique officials are considering converting $1.4 billion in debt it owes China into yuan loans as part of a debt restructuring plan. This is yet another sign of ongoing de-dollarization. A spokesperson from the country’s finance ministry hinted that the Chinese suggested the move.

After going negative in March after the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, flows of gold into ETFs flipped positive again in April, with all regions reporting inflows of metal. Net global ETF gold holdings increased by 45 tonnes, totaling $6.6 billion last month.

In March, the national debt surged over $39 trillion. Now, the federal debt held by the public-to-GDP ratio has crossed the 100 percent threshold. In other words, the U.S. government owes the world more money than the economy’s total annual output. And it’s actually worse than that.

India has accelerated efforts to bring its gold home. In 2024, India brought 100 tonnes of gold home, from vaults in the UK. Over the last six months, the Reserve Bank of India has repatriated another 104 tonnes. Approximately 197.67 tonnes remain stored in the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements vaults.

One of the benefits of owning gold is that you always have a liquid asset when you need it. The Russians need it, and they are taking advantage of their extensive holdings to keep their government solvent as it deals with the high cost of war and the impact of aggressive economic sanctions.

Bank of America recently released an eye-popping silver forecast, saying the price could land anywhere between $135 to $309 by the end of the year. You’ll note that even the low end of that forecast would represent a 75 percent gain from the current level. You’ll also note the extremely wide range for that forecast.

Since the Federal Reserve announced the resumption of quantitative easing in December, the central bank has expanded its balance sheet by over $200 billion. This represents artificial demand for Treasuries, driving interest rates lower than they would otherwise be, enabling the federal government to borrow more at a lower interest rate…

Yesterday was Tax Day. It’s a source of misery for many of us as we write a big check to the IRS. But did you know the IRS isn’t the source of your biggest tax bill? In fact, you don’t even get a bill. You just pay the tax every time you buy something. No, I’m not talking about the sales tax. I’m referring to the inflation tax.

John Maynard Keynes fired the first salvo in 1923 when he declared gold a “barbarous relic.” He argued that the gold standard was a primitive monetary system that “enlightened modern economies” had outgrown. He believed the future belonged to fiat currencies managed by economic technocrats.

This comes at a time when the silver supply is already under significant pressure. Silver demand is forecast to outstrip supply for the sixth straight year in 2026, driven by a 20 percent increase in physical investment offtake. Demand outstripped supply by about 95 million ounces last year, leading to the fifth straight market deficit

The bulk of the U.S. gold reserves held in Fort Knox is made up of impure “non-standard” bars that don’t qualify for use in international settlements. In practice, this means that most of America’s massive gold stockpile is illiquid and wouldn’t be readily accepted on the international market should the need arise.

In a move that netted a nice capital gain, the Banque de France (BdF) sold the remainder of its gold held in the U.S. and replaced it with higher-quality bars purchased in Europe. And while officials won’t talk about it out loud, it also gave the U.S. a little less control over French finances.

Despite sales by Turkey and Russia, net central bank gold buying was positive in February, rebounding from a tepid January. In total, central banks globally added a net 19 tonnes of gold to their reserves in February. That was up from just 5 tonnes in January.

When talking heads on CNBC or Fox Business talk about inflation, they always reference the CPI. This measures the price changes in a “basket of goods” and gives a fair approximation of price inflation (although intentionally understated), but it doesn’t give a good gauge on the trajectory of inflation as historically economically defined.

The Swiss Bankers Association says the yellow metal will continue to become more important as a store of value in an increasingly fragmented and politically uncertain global economy. “Against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic tensions and rising government debt, demand for safe investments is increasing.”

We know one reason there has been so much downward pressure on gold since the beginning of the Iran War: Turkey recently sold and swapped 60 tonnes of gold to support its currency. It appears some central banks are also being forced to sell assets to stabilize their own currencies and fund oil purchases as prices skyrocket.

India is increasingly bypassing the U.S. dollar in oil transactions. The U.S. granted India a waiver to purchase Russian oil despite ongoing sanctions, as the Iran war squeezes global crude supplies. However, the waiver expires on April 11. According to a Bloomberg report, Russian refiners are seeking alternative payment arrangements.

Even as gold faces significant price pressure as the Iran war drags on, dealers in Singapore are bracing for continued high demand. The Straits Times reports that bullion dealers, jewelers, and pawn shops report a surge in precious metals buying, and many retailers are boosting inventories to keep up with surging gold sales.

China imported 790 tonnes of silver through the first two months of 2026, with 470 tonnes flowing into the country in February. As Bloomberg described the situation, “Strong demand has pushed local prices well above international benchmarks, whittling down already-low exchange stockpiles and hoovering up metal from abroad.”

Following the escalation of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.96 percent to 4.20 percent. Rising yields indicate falling bond prices and weakening demand. Instead of capital flowing into Treasuries, investors appear to be pulling away.

Despite gold’s sideways performance in recent weeks, UBS still expects gold to gain 20 percent from its current price this year. Since the big selloff in January, gold has generally traded in a range between $5,000 and $5,200 an ounce. It got a little bump when the U.S. began military operations in Iran, but quickly settled back into that range.

The federal government ran another big budget deficit in February, as the national debt nudges close to $39 trillion. According to the Monthly Treasury Statement, the Trump administration spent $307.5 billion more than it took in last month. This was almost identical to the February 2025 deficit, despite an increase in revenue.

Gold seems to be the last safe-haven standing. While one would expect U.S. Treasuries to get a boost from the geopolitical uncertainty inherent in a war, they have not. In fact, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.96 percent the day before the U.S. and Israel launched their attack to 4.22 percent on the morning of March 12.

Could the U.S./Israel war against Iran provide additional long-term support to the gold bull market? Analysts at Metals Focus think it might. Historically, wars have had little impact on the gold market beyond initial safe-haven buying. Typically, other factors, such as central bank monetary policy, come to dominate the market as the war drags on.

With its airspace closed and many flights grounded, gold stuck in Dubai is being sold at a discount. The United Arab Emirates ranks among the world’s top gold refiners and bullion exporters, primarily serving the Asian market. It is also a conduit for gold shipments from Switzerland, the UK, and several African countries.

The global silver market is expected to run another structural deficit in 2026 as silver investment remains strong. This was one of several articles featured in the Silver Institute’s most recent Silver News report. According to the Silver Institute, the underlying factors that drove silver to over $100 remain in place.

The Debt Black Hole keeps getting bigger. Household debt grew modestly in the fourth quarter of 2025, ending the year at another record high. According to the latest data from the New York Fed, household debt grew by $191 billion in Q4, a 1 percent increase. That pushed total household debt to $18.8 trillion.

With the United States now in a shooting war with Iran, how might a protracted conflict impact gold prices? The historical pattern since the 1980s suggests that, beyond an initial safe haven bump, a war alone doesn’t seem to significantly impact the trajectory of gold prices. As wars drag on, other factors tend to drive the market…