Arkadiusz Sieroń

Fed officials flexed their muscles during the last FOMC meeting. Silver tripped and fell in response, but that didn’t last long – why? The hawkish force was strong with this FOMC!

Stagflation is coming – and it could make the 1970s look like a walk in the park. As you’ve probably noticed, I expect a recession next year, and I’m not alone, as this has become the baseline scenario for many financial institutions and analysts

The Fed delivered another 75-basis points hike. Gold didn’t like the FOMC meeting and declined further. Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 03 November, 2022 By Arkadiusz Sieroń, PhD Lead Economist and […]

I know that people can get fed up with recession warnings at some point, as they did with the boy who was constantly crying wolf. But there are more and more disturbing signals about black clouds gathering over the economy, despite the fact that the American GDP rose 2.6%,

The recent CPI report shows that inflation remains high. It implies a hawkish Fed and bearish gold. To paraphrase a famous Pink Floyd song, I wish you weren’t here, inflation! The CPI increased 0.4% in September, after rising 0.1% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For all those looking forward to the Fed’s pivot, I have bad news. The recently published FOMC minutes from the September meeting reveal strong concerns about “unacceptably high” inflation. The central bankers admitted that inflation is not falling as quickly as expected (is this surprising?).

Gold has returned above $1,700! Does it mean that the worst is behind us and now the yellow metal can only go up? Well, such conclusions would definitely be premature. Let’s remember that September was really awful for the gold bulls, as the average monthly price plunged 4.7% compared to August.

Queen Elizabeth II died, but King Dollar is the strongest in decades. Gold doesn’t like it. The price of the yellow metal declined from above $2,000 to below $1,700, a slide that occurred during the highest inflation since the great stagflation of the 1970s.

The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market? What are the implications for gold? Well, the war shows that gold bulls shouldn’t count on geopolitical events…

Economic contraction is unfolding – but how painful will it be? The deeper the recession, the better for gold. Let’s make it clear: an economic downturn is coming. We are already in a technical recession despite the White House’s attempts to change its definition.

Powell, we could have a problem! According to the BLS, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in August from 3.5% in the previous month. It seems to be a fatal blow to the narrative of a strong labor market. What does it all mean for the gold market?

Inflation moderated a bit in July, fueling hopes that it has peaked. Are they justified? Yes and no, but before I elaborate on this enigmatic answer, let’s see what happened in July. On a monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged then, after rising 1.3 percent in June

Importantly, Powell downplayed July’s deceleration in inflation, saying that “a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down”.

The latest S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI doesn’t bode well for the U.S. economy. The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index declined from 47.7 in July to 45 in August, as the chart below shows. It was the second successive monthly decrease in total business activity.

Although gold barely reacted to the July FOMC minutes, the Fed worries about an economic slowdown. That bodes well for the long-term outlook for gold. First, Fed officials continue to worry about inflation, believing it will remain elevated for some time…

Recession has already occurred or is on its way.. Somebody should tell gold about it! Is a recession really coming? We already know that the yield curve inverted last month for the second time this year, but what are other indicators of looming economic troubles?

Strong Job Creation Shifts the Upper Hand from Gold to the Fed. The US economy generated almost 530,000 jobs in July. That’s good for monetary hawks but bad for gold bulls.

Ever wondered what the yield curve’s favorite song is? Neither have I, but I bet in July it was Britney Spears’ hit, Oops, I Did It Again, as the yield curve inverted again last month, for the second time in 2022. It means that long-term rates fell below those on shorter-dated bonds.

Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the technical recession! According to the initial measure of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP dropped 0.9% in the second quarter, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter

Support for aggressive tightening has strengthened within the FOMC. Indeed, the current tightening cycle is much steeper than the two previous ones, in which the Fed usually raised interest rates in 25-basis point moves, as the chart below shows.

An economic hurricane is coming. Brace yourselves! This is at least what Jamie Dimon suggested last month. To be precise, he said: “Right now, it’s kind of sunny. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road, coming our way.

The hangover is coming. The best cure is – except for the broth – gold. 75 basis points! This is how much the FOMC raised interest rates in June. As the chart below shows, it was the biggest hike in the federal funds rate since the 1990s.

The bears awoke from their winter sleep and took control of Wall Street. However, they haven’t conquered the gold market yet! It’s official: there is a bear market in equities! We can firmly state that bears took control of Wall Street for the first time since the pandemic crash.

Yesterday the FOMC published the minutes from its last meeting, held in mid-June. Although the publication reveals no major surprises about US monetary policy, it shows rising worries within the Fed and also strengthens its hawkish rhetoric.

There are many terrifying statements you can hear from another person. One example is: “Honey, we need to talk!” Another is: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” However, the scariest English word, especially nowadays, is “stagflation.” Brrr!

Last week, Powell testified before Congress. He reiterated many things he said during his recent press conference, but I believe that a few issues deserve our attention. First, Powell repeated that the Fed is strongly committed to additional rate hikes coming.

The end is nigh! There should be no doubt about it now, as more horsemen of the Apocalypse are coming. The first was Pestilence. Two years ago, the COVID-19 pandemic plunged the world into a Great Lockdown and the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI increased 1.0 percent in May, after rising 0.3 percent in April. This is a huge increase, especially since we are talking here about changes from month to month. The core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.6%, the same increase as in April.