Peter Reagan

Recently we’ve documented a groundswell of popularity in gold as an investment. Google searches for how to buy gold recently hit a new record. Central bank gold buying, already fierce, is poised to grow even more. In short, there’s a “new global gold rush” underway:

According to the latest Trustees report, approximately 66 million people receive some form of monetary Social Security benefits. The cost of Social Security programs have exceeded its income since 2021. So they’re underfunded (and falling behind).

Central bank gold demand last year was undoubtedly one of the main takeaways in the market. That’s an accomplishment of sorts, since central bank gold demand has been one of the primary drivers of gold prices over the past decade.

Ray Dalio doesn’t like the tensions building up between the U.S. and China. It’s a 2016-style flashback, intensifying quarrels with China over global trade. At the same time, 2016 was a while ago! We can no longer call the U.S.-China conflict a “trade war,” because there is a real and ugly war going on in Ukraine

It’s worth remembering that the Federal Reserve chair is an appointed, not an elected, position. Powell can survive a period of unpopularity more easily than any member of Congress. And that’s good news for him, because he’s going to be unpopular in the White House (and on Wall Street) for quite some time…

Over the weekend, federal regulators seized First Republic and cut a deal with JP Morgan to assume most of the failed bank’s assets. This should come as no surprise to regular readers – I discussed the contagion spreading across the banking sector back in March. So this isn’t a surprise, but is it still worthy of concern?

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: What to watch out for in the coming financial crisis, Citi thinks $30 silver is a lowball forecast, and how to solve the debt ceiling stand-off with a single platinum coin…

Depending on the source you check, the U.S. debt ceiling has been lifted or modified approximately 102 times since its inception in 1917. By June of this year, that number is likely to increase by one, and that means the U.S. debt is poised to skyrocket after it happens. But what if things don’t go according to plan?

Steve Forbes demands a return to the gold standard, gold’s fair value is closer to $3,000 than its current price, and U.S. states aren’t waiting for a national gold standard – they’re busy authorizing their own.

Owning physical gold and silver outside the banking system makes sense to me, not so much because I’m concerned about the imminent collapse of the global financial system. Because it’s smart protection. I have a fire extinguisher in my kitchen, but not because I think the oven is about to burst into flames.

Markets are now pricing in a 1.5% cut in Fed funds rates in the next 15 months. It’s an interesting forecast on the markets’ part. Can the Fed really hold off so long? And when the Fed throws in the towel on the inflation fight and cuts rates, will the U.S. dollar have anything left in the tank anymore?

After almost 15 years of Fed-fueled cheap money offered at near-zero rates that was leveraged into overinflated speculative bubbles, the lights are on, the crowd is dispersing – and the party might finally be over.

A stable gold price over $2,000/oz means that something has gone wrong. Either the greenback crumbled further, or there is some kind of issue that isn’t going away and that is driving haven demand. So often investors see asset prices rising and, fearful of missing out on a new bull market, buy in and drive prices even higher.

Over 95% of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits are not insured by the FDIC (due to being over the $250,000 limit) That is over $160 billion in uninsured customer deposits. About half of all venture capital-funded startups in the U.S. are customers of SVB. That’s 65,000 startups.

The magazine recently published a story about how the wealthy invest in gold that offered no real surprises but plenty of confirmation that the super-wealthy share the same economic concerns as most of us.

Here’s the thing: the money you contribute to Social Security doesn’t go into an account in your name. Rather, it goes into a giant pool of money that’s used to pay benefits to those who’ve already retired. In fact, the Social Security trust that funds your benefit has been running a deficit for a while now.

Despite the Fed’s best efforts thus far to raise rates and cool off inflation, I don’t expect relief any time soon. With that in mind, let’s look into the past to see what a longer period of inflation looks like. The best place to start in the U.S. is to take a brief look at an extraordinarily long period of inflation that took place from the 1970s

I think about Gresham’s law a lot. Back in the day of the first Queen Elizabeth (1533-1603), her banker, Sir Thomas Gresham, made an observation about currency debasement: Bad money drives out the good. You see, back in the 16th century, money was still “sound”…

The same people who told us inflation was “transitory” two years ago are still capable of being surprised when reality fails to meet their expectations. Even returning inflation to 2 percent won’t make absurd prices any lower – rather, prices will still rise, but at a slower pace.

Do Bloomberg’s readers really need a primer on gold investment? Aren’t they all experienced economists and investors who know every asset inside and out? Judging by Bloomberg’s latest step-by-step gold investment guide, we’d say not.

Low volatility plus a strong upward trend is a recipe for slow, steady price growth. You’re looking at an 18% increase in gold compared to a 5% increase in the S&P 500 – in just three months. That’s not enough for some people.

MoneyWeek’s Dominic Frisby is an analyst to watch. His precious metals analyses are full of insights, and his latest observation on gold’s price is fascinating. Frisby shows off his decades of experience by reminiscing about gold’s price trajectory from the late 1990s to now.

When people spend beyond their means, they increase the likelihood that they will suffer severe financial consequences – including foreclosure and bankruptcy. But when the U.S. government spends beyond its income, that doesn’t happen.

It’s official: Inflation is easing up from the historic pace it reached back in June 2022. The latest report from December 2022 has it running at “only” 6.5%. But even that is still running hotter than any month since the early 1990s.

Strange as it might sound for a year when gold posted a new all-time high, many thought 2022 was a “tepid” or “disappointing” year for gold’s price. That makes the price gains so far in 2023 all the more promising…

Gold’s price jumps over the past week were difficult to ignore. When gold rose past $1,800, there were some immediate concerns that its price might fall a bit in the coming weeks. Instead, it did the opposite. Closing Friday around $1,870, the next benchmark of $1,900 appears within easy reach.

Gold ended an otherwise dull year by surging from $1,650 to $1,820 rather abruptly. Will 2023 include another rapid rise in price? A slow, steady climb? About the only consensus from the forecasts I saw was that gold will rise in price. The overall bullishness of these forecasts varies, but not the result.

We’re in for a rough start to 2023. Still-hot inflation, high mortgage rates, and rising personal debt can slow down even the most stable economy. (Let alone a volatile, teetering and still-frothy economy.)