Precious Metals Analysis

Gold demand set a third-quarter record, driving the price to a series of record highs. Including over-the-counter (OTC) sales, gold demand came in at 1,313 tons in Q3, a 5 percent year-on-year increase. Gold averaged a record $2,474 an ounce in the third quarter. That represented a 28 percent year-on-year increase.

Eerily Symbolic: Treasury Seal Falls Off Podium as Yellen Is Asked About Dollar’s Status! The universe seems to know the dollar is in trouble. During a recent news conference, a reporter asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, “How concerned are you about the potential impact of the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency?” And the seal fell off…

HSBC Hong Kong announced it will formally join China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (Cips). The move is yet another body blow to dollar dominance. According to the Financial Times, it will give “the world’s biggest player in trade finance a key role in Beijing’s push to expand use of the renminbi.”

Gold is typically seen as a store of value. Over time, investors expect its price to keep pace with inflation. We find gold’s returns are tightly correlated with the general price level as measured by the consumer price index. Using this assumption, the long-term expected return for gold generally ranges between zero and 1 percent. However…

According to National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński, the county holds 420 tons of gold “on behalf of all Poles,” noting that Poland “has thus entered the exclusive club of the world’s largest gold reserve holders.” Only 10 countries hold more gold than Poland – Poland now holds more gold than Great Britain.

How close are Americans to hitting their credit card limits? Based on the latest consumer credit data from the Federal Reserve, they may be getting closer. American consumers have been yo-yo-ing between slowing credit card spending and going on spending sprees. But in August, credit card balances contracted significantly.

Gold is being boosted by a “debasement trade,” and according to JPMorgan analysts, this dynamic “may have legs.” According to a team of JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the gold price has climbed above what should be expected, given these factors.

According to Bank of America, gold has overtaken the euro to become the world’s second-largest central bank reserve asset. With the central bank gold buying spree over the last several years, along with the rapid rise in price in 2024, the yellow metal now makes up about 16 percent of total reserve assets, just ahead of the euro.

Well, that didn’t take long. In April, Zimbabwe introduced a gold-backed currency in an effort to stabilize the country’s financial system. Less than six months later, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has already devalued the new money. I hate to say, “I told you so,” but, well, I told you so.

Talking heads and politicians laud the “resilience” of American consumers. They managed to keep spending despite rapidly rising prices thanks to post-pandemic price inflation. But they rarely talk about how Americans have weathered the inflationary storm. When you look hard, it’s not a story of resilience but one of desperation.

According to the Russian website Russia’s Pivot to Asia, Russian businesses are buying physical gold in Russia and then transporting it to Hong Kong via courier. There, the gold is sold, and the cash is deposited into the bank accounts of Chinese suppliers to pay for goods and services.

Nassim Taleb, best known for his book The Black Swan, said on X that “people are not seeing the real de-dollarization in progress.” He pointed out that global transactions are still generally labeled in dollars “as an anchor currency. But central banks (particularly BRICS) have been storing, that is putting their reserves, in Gold.”

ING Bank has revised its short and midterm gold price forecast higher, saying the gold rally is “just getting started.” The Dutch financial group cites the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty going into the presidential election as potential catalysts to drive gold to new record highs.