A few adjustments later and my JNUG ETF trade is looking a little better
Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 17 November, 2014
By Terry Kinder
Investor, Technical Analyst
Trading is easy. You lose a bunch of money until you get sick and tired of losing money. Then you figure out a way to stop losing money. Simple, right? Maybe not. My experience with the JNUG ETF has gone from looking at it cyclically and theoretically to looking at it as an actual trade. Those two things are worlds apart.
JNUG ETF: Sometimes things don’t go as expected, like when you think the JNUG ETF price will go down 10-14 weeks and it goes down 18 weeks in a row.
Through a theoretical lens, the JNUG ETF trade looked pretty simple. It was on a fairly regular cycle of moving up and down. You could almost set a watch by it, until you couldn’t. What I figured would be 10-14 weeks at the outside of going down turned out to be 18 straight weeks of the price dropping. King Dollar decided to go up and up and up. Gold decided to fall and fall and fall. It was the perfect storm. It was bad, very bad.
Then, almost as soon as the storm began, it was over. The JNUG ETF price dropped as low as $2.84, but I had bailed out of it before that. My investment pile set aside for investing in the JNUG ETF was was battered and leaking like a little boat that had survived a storm at sea, but I, and a few investment dollars, lived to fight another day.
That day is now. Successfully traded in and out of JNUG a couple of days ago for a 9% gain. Then on a day when the price of crude oil plunged, somehow managed to get in and out of GASL with a 1% gain – don’t ask me how. That GASL trade was about the most fun I have ever had, working so hard to make so little, but it felt good to get away to the plus rather than minus side.
I am back in JNUG again, and it has been a good run thus far. One little problem though. I’m in the JNUG trade with unsettled funds. Therefore I’m subject to the T+3 rule – so since my previous stocks sold on the 13th, it won’t be until tomorrow the 18th (3 business days after the sale) that funds will settle and I will be able to sell my JNUG ETF shares. So, it feels a bit like I have been holding my breath these past few days. However, if things don’t get too sideways between now and tomorrow, it could be a good trade. We’ll see.
PS – I have hedged my bet on JNUG, just to tide me over until the funds in my account settle. Will let you know how that works out in the next investor’s diary.
Sometimes you have the right idea, but the wrong timing. It’s not an either or proposition. It takes a good idea with the right timing to make a trade work. Sure, you can get lucky sometimes, but you can just as easily be very unlucky. That’s why you need to have the right idea at the right time.
Links to other investor’s diaries in this series:
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7
Part 8
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