The consumer price index (CPI) for April registered at 8.3%. That’s a slight improvement in the headline number over March’s 8.5%, but only slight. Notably, core CPI – the “underlying” CPI that excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose 6.2% year-over-year
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Its hard to pick up a paper or read the news without headlines around plummeting auction clearance rates, stalled house sales, predictions of big house price falls, and then late last week we got the ABS stats showing new home and construction finance commitments literally halved…
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On Thursday May 12, the price of silver fell about a buck. But… As with every one of these big price moves, the question is: what really happened? There is a theory which is often touted in the precious metals community. According to this theory, the banks sell futures to manipulate prices.
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If you pay any attention to financial news (or if you’re a regular reader of my columns), you’re probably familiar with the term “bubble.” We’ve seen the 2008 housing bubble, the dot-com stock bubble, some are referring to the recent collapse in bonds as the end of a bond bubble and so on…
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“We’ll see a recession in 2023.” That’s what more than half of the economists, fund managers and strategists surveyed by CNBC said they believe. But that pales in comparison to the number of small business owners who say what they’re going through right now suggests to them that we’re in for a recession this year.
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Never a dull night on global markets lately… Last night was again a sea of red. The only green was yet again the US dollar (at near 20 year highs) and big cap crypto (coming off massive falls).
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Bonds are generally considered a conservative investment vehicle. Corporate bond-holders get paid before shareholders, and even in the worst-case scenario of a bankruptcy, bond owners are likely to recoup some of their investment, while shareholders are usually wiped out.
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While the annual consumer price reading slowed to 8.3% from 8.5%, both headline and core CPI rose 0.3% and 0.6% respectively in April, both higher than consensus expectations and still some of the highest on record.
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The times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—but similar to those that have happened many times before. Studying history lets us find recurring patterns that determine likely future developments.
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Good news for gold holders is that the safe-haven metal is holding up better than conventional financial assets. Stocks are breaking down at the same time as purportedly “risk-free” Treasury bonds are collapsing in value at a rate never before seen
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A lot has been written and speculated of late about the Russia’s moves to back the rouble with gold, the weaponization of the US dollar and reckless printing of it starting some kind of reset of global fiat currencies. None of this is without historical precedence of course.
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In response to the recent Fed announcements, on Thursday the Dow Jones tumbled almost 1,100 points. The NASDAQ also lost 5% of its value. Both losses completely erased their relief-rally gains from the day before – when stock bulls were excited the Fed didn’t raise rates higher.
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On Wednesday, six hours before the Fed interest rate announcement, the price of silver began to drop. It went from around $22.65 to a low of $22.25 before recovering about 20 cents. We wonder a bit about how they keep privileged traders from peeking at such announcements before the rest of the world gets to see it…
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Soaring prices have been the big economic story for quite a while. But there are signs that inflation could be on the verge of getting pushed off the front pages – or at least further down on the front page – to make room for another ominous economic condition: recession.
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Last night continued the biggest sharemarket whipsaw since peak COVID turmoil in mid 2020. After the biggest Fed day surge in 44 years on Wednesday night, last night saw the biggest drop since June 2020 with the NASDAQ down 6% at its worst and 5% at close.
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Markets responded to the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated 50 basis-point rate hike yesterday by rallying. Investors breathed a sigh of relief when Fed chairman Jerome Powell said a 75 basis-point future hike is off the table.
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For some reason few seemed to be talking about the announcement that the Fed will also turn from taper to outright reduction (QT or quantitative tightening) of their balance sheet
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The price of silver has been going down, and then down some more. From over $28 a year ago, and over $26.50 a month ago, it’s now at a new low under $22.50. Four bucks down in a month. However, it’s been behaving differently than gold behind the scenes…
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Last week’s release of first quarter GDP data was a disappointment, as GDP sank by 1.4%. Analyst expectations were calling for a rise of 1%. The surprise decline may signal a recession ahead. Optimists, however, say the GDP number may not be as bad as it looks.
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To many market watchers, it appears cheating continues unabated. The Department of Justice and the federal regulatory bureaucracies tasked with enforcing fair markets have only imposed a small amount of accountability for illicit trading practices.
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Inflation isn’t a scary word, is it? It makes you think of blowing up balloons for birthday parties, the Macy’s Thanksgiving parade, maybe helping a toddler get their water wings on before an adventure in the swimming pool. It just sounds so innocuous.
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Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, says that the economy is heading towards something they label a “Quad 4,” a state of emergency warranting government intervention. A Quad 4 means disappointing growth and inflation, year after year.
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To begin with, gold and silver are still up for the year overall. By contrast, stock and bond markets are sticking investors with large losses. Investors are finding out the hard way that in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, there are no safe havens in paper assets.
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The head of the UN World Food Program is warning that this is going to be the worst worldwide food crisis since World War II, and even Joe Biden is admitting that the approaching food shortages “are going to be real”. Unfortunately, there have been some new developments…
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U.S. inflation now is at 8.5%. That’s the fastest year-over-year growth in the inflation rate since December 1981. Experts point to various culprits, including money-supply growth and geopolitical crisis. And now they say look for widespread lockdowns in China to push prices even higher.
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SPOILER ALERT: So, what if there was an investment that offered the benefits of diversification, return on investment and hedging? An investment that could help capitalize on both upside growth opportunities while also protecting against downside risks of loss?
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Joe Biden has committed more than his share of mistakes and missteps during the first 15 months of his administration.
Some, including a new federal spending spree combined with decisions to limit U.S. oil production and to weaponize the U.S. dollar against Russia, are contributing to the surge in price inflation.
As you likely know by now, the year-over-year consumer price index (CPI) for March grew at 8.5%. The last time we saw CPI rise at a faster rate was way back in December 1981. Ronald Reagan’s first term as president was still in its relative infancy…
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