This Time it’ll NOT be Different
Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 07 January, 2024
By Ira Bershatsky
Managing Member at Advisor Metals
The three major stock indices, S+P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ composite have had late afternoon declines five out of the last six trading days. The Dow Jones made a new all-time high on January 2, 2024 and the S+P 500 and NASDAQ Composite did not follow that with their own all-time highs. Interest rates have increased at the same time. Along with gold and silver increasing in value since mid-November.
Additionally…
- The NASDAQ has had its best year since 1999
- Pending home sales at record low since 2001
- Monthly mortgage cost is the highest percentage above monthly rent since 2006
- 40% of commercial real estate loans are under water
The contrarian top indicator Janet “inflation is transitory” Yellen, says the FED has achieved a soft landing.
If the Federal Reserve from their December meeting said that they may lower interest rates next year with declining inflation, why then is the stock market pausing?
Ahh! There’s the rub!
Look for financial news stories that are too optimistic.
Last week, Yahoo! Finance had two front page stories with one headlined “New inflation reading could clinch Fed’s dovish stance” and “Bonds are on their best run since March”. Do these bullish headlines mean a stock market top?
My opinion, and I have seen this before, is that there will be a recession this year.
Remember, the stock market leads the economy by a few months and this year is the peak year of the 17-year housing and economic boom cycle. Stock market peaks in the fall of 2021 happened a few months before a recession of two down GDP quarters that occurred in the first two quarters of 2022.
Even though the powers that be made changes to the definition of recession to make it look like there was no recession.
Silver and gold are above their mid-November and mid-December lows.
Positive for the metals.
Ira Bershatsky
Ira Bershatsky is founder and Managing Member at Advisor Metals, a boutique Gold IRA Specialist, uniquely qualified in the industry and focused on extraordinary customer care without high cost premiums.
Enjoying 44 years in the business, Ira is the only person in the physical precious metals industry with a Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Federal registration, meaning that as an advisor, everything Ira says to his clients is factual and fully transparent, without the typical sales pitch or all too common hype.
This article was originally published here
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