Soaring prices have been the big economic story for quite a while. But there are signs that inflation could be on the verge of getting pushed off the front pages – or at least further down on the front page – to make room for another ominous economic condition: recession.
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Last night continued the biggest sharemarket whipsaw since peak COVID turmoil in mid 2020. After the biggest Fed day surge in 44 years on Wednesday night, last night saw the biggest drop since June 2020 with the NASDAQ down 6% at its worst and 5% at close.
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Markets responded to the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated 50 basis-point rate hike yesterday by rallying. Investors breathed a sigh of relief when Fed chairman Jerome Powell said a 75 basis-point future hike is off the table.
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For some reason few seemed to be talking about the announcement that the Fed will also turn from taper to outright reduction (QT or quantitative tightening) of their balance sheet
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The price of silver has been going down, and then down some more. From over $28 a year ago, and over $26.50 a month ago, it’s now at a new low under $22.50. Four bucks down in a month. However, it’s been behaving differently than gold behind the scenes…
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Last week’s release of first quarter GDP data was a disappointment, as GDP sank by 1.4%. Analyst expectations were calling for a rise of 1%. The surprise decline may signal a recession ahead. Optimists, however, say the GDP number may not be as bad as it looks.
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To many market watchers, it appears cheating continues unabated. The Department of Justice and the federal regulatory bureaucracies tasked with enforcing fair markets have only imposed a small amount of accountability for illicit trading practices.
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Inflation isn’t a scary word, is it? It makes you think of blowing up balloons for birthday parties, the Macy’s Thanksgiving parade, maybe helping a toddler get their water wings on before an adventure in the swimming pool. It just sounds so innocuous.
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Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, says that the economy is heading towards something they label a “Quad 4,” a state of emergency warranting government intervention. A Quad 4 means disappointing growth and inflation, year after year.
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To begin with, gold and silver are still up for the year overall. By contrast, stock and bond markets are sticking investors with large losses. Investors are finding out the hard way that in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, there are no safe havens in paper assets.
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The head of the UN World Food Program is warning that this is going to be the worst worldwide food crisis since World War II, and even Joe Biden is admitting that the approaching food shortages “are going to be real”. Unfortunately, there have been some new developments…
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U.S. inflation now is at 8.5%. That’s the fastest year-over-year growth in the inflation rate since December 1981. Experts point to various culprits, including money-supply growth and geopolitical crisis. And now they say look for widespread lockdowns in China to push prices even higher.
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SPOILER ALERT: So, what if there was an investment that offered the benefits of diversification, return on investment and hedging? An investment that could help capitalize on both upside growth opportunities while also protecting against downside risks of loss?
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Joe Biden has committed more than his share of mistakes and missteps during the first 15 months of his administration.
Some, including a new federal spending spree combined with decisions to limit U.S. oil production and to weaponize the U.S. dollar against Russia, are contributing to the surge in price inflation.
As you likely know by now, the year-over-year consumer price index (CPI) for March grew at 8.5%. The last time we saw CPI rise at a faster rate was way back in December 1981. Ronald Reagan’s first term as president was still in its relative infancy…
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Could Record Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes Lead to Recession? Federal Reserve rate hikes have begun. But Credit Suisse says much-higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation. Devlyn Steele explains further.
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Last week, the U.S. Mint reported sales of 426,500 ounces in gold coins during the first quarter of 2022 – up 3.5% from the first quarter of 2021 and the highest in 23 years! In fact, March sales for the U.S. Mint was its best since 1999.
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Can we all recognize the simple fact that every government price-fixing scheme, ever, has failed? For example, banana republics have declared their pesos to be worth $1. But when the market decides to redeem pesos for dollars 1-to-1, the central bank abandons the peg.
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Even the most hawkish Federal Reserve estimates that inflation for March could come in as high as 8.41%, with forecasts of a quarter-over-quarter rise to 9.1%. That’s not quite double-digit inflation, not yet, but it’s plenty alarming…
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As Russia appears to be on the verge of defaulting on its debt, the U.S. debt market is also signaling trouble ahead. Treasury bonds, long considered to be among the safest investments, are rapidly plunging in value as yields surge. It could end up being a lost decade – or worse – for bondholders.
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With the opening of our Dubai offices and our now having staff on the ground in the UAE, we’re delighted to announce we will be removing the requirement for Dubai-based bullion dealers to have a website in order to receive a directory listing.
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Three weeks ago, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The size of the increase isn’t particularly momentous – just 25 basis points. But it’s expected there will be six more increases before 2022 is finished.
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With Tax Day coming up and tax hike proposals coming down the pike, investors are eyeing ways to limit Uncle Sam’s take. Last week, President Joe Biden proposed several new tax increases to help pay for his massive $5.8 trillion budget…
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Often, Narratives pile up lots of baggage. To effectively deal with it, one must unpack it. One bit of luggage sticking up from the heap is the assertion that now the ruble has a link to oil…
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Essentially, Russia has done exactly what we predicted and created a gold-backed currency. What this will mean for international trade involving Russia, let alone gold’s role in it, will undoubtedly become incredibly influential on future efforts to return to a gold standard.
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There is a Narrative about Russia and how it will change the monetary system. Many analysts in the gold community are promoting this story. There’s just one problem. It is like how Michael Crichton described the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect: the newspaper is full of stories explaining how “wet streets cause rain.”
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High inflation by itself could trigger an economic slowdown – Consumers blaming inflation now for recession-like reduction in living standards. We’re just two weeks officially into the Fed’s newest tightening regime, and already there’s a good deal of news about recession warnings and signals.
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The Fed is raising interest rates to cool inflation down. But what if higher inflation is here to stay? The Federal Reserve says higher inflation will last for years. As the Fed tries to tame inflation with rate hikes, Devlyn Steele details the challenges.
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