Gold Looks Promising Longer-Term

Gold takes a breather, while negative data continues to pour in.

Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 26 January, 2015
By Christopher Lemieux
Senior Analyst at Bullion.Directory; Senior FX and Commodities Analyst at FX Analytics

This could be just the tipping point for trouble in the Eurozone, with Tsipras known as the “anti-austerity” candidate. Saxo Bank said, today, that Tsipras could really cause issues, particularly increasing tensions between Greece and Germany.

Across the pond, in the US, ongoing weak data continues to hit a seemingly Teflon market.

The Dallas Fed index collapsed to 20-month lows with all sub-categories declining. The negative 4.4 print was four standard deviations from expectations, ouch.

New orders continue to collapse to levels last seen since 2009 – the heart of the recession.

The raw material price index contracted to negative 1.7, the first negative print in five years; and wage pressures softened, too.

The regional index is indicating signs of trouble because this region is responsible for a lot of the growth since the “recovery” began. Texas, alone, represents nearly 25 percent of all jobs gained since President Obama took office.

Gold was also in the headlines, as profit taking took place. The slow data and absence of negative headlines where also a contribution to lower gold.

Gold’s inability to close above $1,300 is a mild hit for bulls, but prices will likely consolidate prior to the next leg higher. Prices declined to $1,280 per toz., just above the descending trend line, now support. The likely scenario is that gold will reenter the ascending channel and grind higher.

Prices will look to regain $1,295, while a close below $1,273 will cause prices to push lower to $1,259 per toz.

The longer-term, monthly chart does look promising, however.

The price action in January has caused an overwhelming bullish monthly candle that trumps the previous two. Currently, price action is hung up around September’s close of $1,285 per toz, while price action resistance is found at $1,303.  Gold has been able to recover from testing a longer-term ascending support trend line, but prices are still stuck within a descending channel created when the bull market correction first took place in 2013.

If prices can close above $1,303 then near-term resistance would be seen at $1,353; but, the next monthly target is found at $1,391.

There is accumulation of gold futures, which picked up since gold first bottomed at $1,130. Gold was overbought in regards to the near-term chart, and the easing off of $1,300 will correct that. The RSI is well from overbought, and it is ticking upward – a positive sign of more gains to come.

The +/- DMI is also looking promising. The negative price indicator (- DMI) has remained on top since the correction was first initiated, but it has recently given up ground. The + DMI is pushing higher, and a bullish convergence on the monthly chart could prove positive for that push beyond $1,353.

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