Gold Shines As Dollar Loses Luster

Bad data ushers in gold bulls.

Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 26 March, 2015
By Christopher Lemieux
Senior Analyst at Bullion.Directory; Senior FX and Commodities Analyst at FX Analytics

The dollar is weakening, again, on bad data with durable goods declining 1.4 percent in February versus expectations of a .4 percent gain. Core durable goods month-over-month, ex-transportation, fell .4 percent while January’s figure was revised down from zero to a contraction of .7 percent. The ongoing poor data out of the US is giving traders reason to doubt the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise the key benchmark rate anytime this year, thus rekindling gold bulls.

In “Gold to Retest $1,130 Lows,” gold was trending lower on a much stronger dollar. Support at $1,140/24 demand zone was the last line of defense before challenging the November low of $1,130 per toz. If the dollar had maintained its strength, it was a real possibility; but, the Fed rained on the bears’ parade.

Currently, gold is climbing to $1,200, which will initially act as round number resistance. The 4H chart is showing that the price action from the breakout is floating in overbought territory with an RSI of 70.

Considering that the RSI is coinciding with price action resistance, gold could pullback slightly while maintaining bullish momentum.

There is nice bullish EMA activity with a 50/72 convergence and price action sitting on top of the 200-4H EMA.

Potential pullback targets are seen at support levels at $1,186 and $1,174 per toz. However, a close about $1,200 could send prices to $1,209 and $1,222 per toz.

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