Gold Tactical Volatility Ranges 3.23.18

Tactical Volatility Range Gold Notes

Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 23, March 2018
By Christopher Lemieux
Macro Strategist; Twitter @Lemieux_26

Tactical Volatility Range Gold Notes

• Risk sentiment continues to wane as geopolitical risks mount. Equities are reacting to President Trump’s $60B tariffs initiative against China.
• We saw gold pull back from yesterday’s highs, an as expected, miners pulled back from the top end of the range.
• Trend still bullish near-term still intact for junior minors, but GDX did close below it’s volatility pivot. Further breakdown puts the rally at risk.
• The dollar made back some of its losses, but price action remains chopping. We pointed out USDJPY was signaling lower US yields, and that’s what we got. 10Y approaching 280 bps and 30Y nearing 300 bps.
• Gold futures have rallied hard as global equities sink. We continue to see China/Hong Kong as key risks.
• Shangahi Composite continues on its sharp decline as tightening further sinks its nails in, Shanghai down 3.39%
• Dollar is modest lower but remains below 90.
• The U.S. Senate passes a garbage of a spending bill, $1.3 trillion in total. Though this may stop a potential government shutdown, it will undoubtedly stress the U.S.’s financials further — > net positive for gold.
• USDHKD continues to move higher, nearing 7.85. We continue to see the positive correlation between this move, gold and real yields.

Major U.S. Economic Releases

• Core Durable Goods MoM, 8:30 EST
• Durable Goods MoM, 8:30 EST
• New Home Sales, 10:00 EST

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