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Gold Tactical Volatility Ranges 3.25.18

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Tactical Volatility Range Gold Notes

Christopher-LemieuxSMBullion.Directory precious metals analysis 25, March 2018
By Christopher Lemieux
Macro Strategist; Twitter @Lemieux_26

TickerTVR TopPivotTVR Bottom
GLD 127.47 125.54 123.52
IAU 12.90 12.70 12.50
UUP 23.72 23.53 23.34
GDX 22.24 21.64 21.05
GDXJ 32.89 31.81 23.34


Tactical Volatility Range Gold Notes

  • Gold continues to rally, but price action is becoming significant over extended by nearing a three sigma price move. Volume in gold futures remain positive and above the 20-day average.
  • IAU and GLD will continue to play off of UUP’s under-performance. The dollar will continue to see downward pressure if U.S.-China trade relations continue to stall.
  • Taking the fundamentals in the dollar, cross-market analysis suggesting “coordinated global growth” is stagnating.
  • Industrial/Base metals, as long as Chinese yields, are firmly in a downtrend. If China slows, global inflation worries will continue to subside. Platinum and palladium (and copper) continue lag gold and silver.
  • Gold miners likely to under-perform gold pricing as volume does not look constructive at the top end of the tacvol range.
  • Broader equity markets are heavily oversold, and we’ve been bearish over the last week. At a -2.7 sigma for the SPX, it would not be wise to not cover portion of shorts. Whether the a trend inflection is set is not yet established.

Major U.S. Economic Releases

  • FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 12:30 EST
  • FOMC Member Mester Speaks, 4:30 EST
  • FOMC Member Quarles Speaks, 7:10 EST
This article was originally published here
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