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Tactical Volatility Range Gold Notes
Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 25, March 2018
By Christopher Lemieux
Macro Strategist; Twitter @Lemieux_26
| Ticker | TVR Top | Pivot | TVR Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 127.47 | 125.54 | 123.52 |
| IAU | 12.90 | 12.70 | 12.50 |
| UUP | 23.72 | 23.53 | 23.34 |
| GDX | 22.24 | 21.64 | 21.05 |
| GDXJ | 32.89 | 31.81 | 23.34 |
Tactical Volatility Range Gold Notes
- Gold continues to rally, but price action is becoming significant over extended by nearing a three sigma price move. Volume in gold futures remain positive and above the 20-day average.
- IAU and GLD will continue to play off of UUP’s under-performance. The dollar will continue to see downward pressure if U.S.-China trade relations continue to stall.
- Taking the fundamentals in the dollar, cross-market analysis suggesting “coordinated global growth” is stagnating.
- Industrial/Base metals, as long as Chinese yields, are firmly in a downtrend. If China slows, global inflation worries will continue to subside. Platinum and palladium (and copper) continue lag gold and silver.
- Gold miners likely to under-perform gold pricing as volume does not look constructive at the top end of the tacvol range.
- Broader equity markets are heavily oversold, and we’ve been bearish over the last week. At a -2.7 sigma for the SPX, it would not be wise to not cover portion of shorts. Whether the a trend inflection is set is not yet established.
Major U.S. Economic Releases
- FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 12:30 EST
- FOMC Member Mester Speaks, 4:30 EST
- FOMC Member Quarles Speaks, 7:10 EST
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