Gary Wagner recently gave his gold price forecast 2015.
Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 22 December, 2014
By Terry Kinder
Investor, Technical Analyst
Gary Wagner’s Gold Price Forecast 2015: The Bearish Model
Wagner basically lays out two models in his gold price forecast 2015:
1. The bearish case for gold:
2. The bullish case for gold (lower probability than the bearish gold case):
Gold Price Forecast 2015: Gold price has so far stayed above a support line dating back to 2005
The gold price has managed to stay above a support line dating back to 2005. It appears the line drawn at the triangle apex near $1,300.00 would likely represent significant resistance. Should the gold price manage to drop below the support line dating back to 2005, that would obviously be very bearish for the gold price.
Gold Price Forecast 2015: A potential gold breakout appears to be failing
Today’s price action in gold, seen above, appears to be potentially very damaging for the gold price prospects in 2015 and appears to confirm Wagner’s gold price forecast 2015.
A few points worth noting from the chart:
1. Today’s closing price at $1,175.10 (A) has fallen below the 0.5 Fib Retracement level of $1,186.70 (D).
2. The gold price fell below overhead price resistance at C.
3. After breaking out of the upper parallel channel of the Andrews’ Pitchfork, price failed to reach the descending price trigger at B.
4. MACD is rolling over at E and is falling back toward a support-resistance line F.
5. RSI remains relatively weak. RSI briefly rose above a resistance line G, but has since fallen back below it.
All of the above looks pretty bearish for gold. The price action today was especially damaging to gold. Unless there is a fairly prompt and strong reversal, then gold could be heading back for a re-test of the 0.618 Fib Retracement level at $1,138.10. Below that, the 0.764 level at $1,078.00 and then $980.80 could come into play.
Two other price levels are worth noting:
1. $1,202.00 – pointed out by Peter L. Brandt as being significant.
2. $1,228.00 – pointed out by Martin Armstrong. Armstrong has stated that if gold fails to close 2014 at at least the $1,228.00 level that it would be very bearish for the gold price next year.
As 2014 comes to a close, unless there is a rapid and decisive change of momentum in the gold price, then Wagner’s gold price forecast 2015 of lower prices looks highly probable.
Update:
While some disdain attempts to predict future prices, when one of the best forecasters in the world, Martin Armstrong, sounds a warning call, my advice is to listen and at least consider what he is saying:
1. The Dow may be setting up to test a level of 20.965 next year.
2. Gold is in danger of slipping to new lows next year. Armstrong says a close below $1,227.00 will mean a new low next year and a close below $1,155.00 this year will guarantee a move below $1,000.00 is coming.
What Armstrong is saying reinforces what Gary Wagner said in his gold price forecast 2015. A rising stock market, rising dollar, and faling oil price does not bode well for the gold price. As a holder of gold and silver I wish it were otherwise. I’d much prefer to tell you that gold was going higher, but until the present course reverses, it looks like we may have more rough sledding ahead for precious metals in 2015.
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Peter Schiff, Peter Antonellis, Jim Rickards, & others are forecasting instability in the economic “recovery” that will boost gold and silver in ’15. Gold bulls are buying like crazy at today’s discounted price.
So what are their forecasts for the gold price? I would say that systems built upon fractional reserve banking are inherently unstable, but that doesn’t always result in a higher gold price. So, what exactly is supposed to happen that moves precious metals price higher, and what will that price be?