Chaos on Top of Chaos

Why Uncertainty Is Now Our Only Certainty

Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 30 May, 2025
By Peter Reagan
Financial Market Strategist at Birch Gold Group

We’re not talking Ghostbusters level “Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!” level chaos. But nobody knows what will happen next-level chaos. The kind that reminds us the world is inherently unstable.

And that is causing people to act in some very predictable ways.

But where’s all the chaos coming from?

What exactly is causing the economic chaos?

President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

Now, those who support Trump will argue that Trump is using tariffs as leverage to push for better trade deals and to reset foreign policy situations that really need to change.

Judging from how quickly many countries have come to the bargaining table when Trump threatened tariffs, the tariffs seem to be having their intended effect. Trump’s opponents, on the other hand, believe that Trump is creating economic chaos to benefit his supporters.

I’m not here to argue for either position. I’m just pointing out that Trump’s decisions as President have a huge part in the current situation in the economy, and his tariffs are possibly the biggest driver of the uncertainty.

Well, the tariffs and the tariffs being contested in court.

If you’ve been following the news, then you may know that most of Trump’s tariffs were recently blocked in court. Ben Berkowitz and Courtenay Brown with Axios write,

A three-judge panel of the Court of International Trade – Reagan, Obama and Trump appointees – ruled that Trump does not have the authority to impose sweeping tariffs under 1970s-era emergency legislation.

In fact, the judges said an injunction wasn’t enough – they issued a summary judgment invalidating and blocking almost all of Trump’s trade levies to date.

They also noted that, with this court ruling, Trump’s leverage to force renegotiations with other countries was, effectively, wiped out.

So the Liberation Day tariffs are gone?

Not even close. Because another court very quickly set that court ruling aside, at least temporarily.

Jack Phillips with The Epoch Times tells us:

A federal appeals court on Thursday temporarily paused a lower-court ruling that struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a wide range of countries.
In its decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit granted the federal government’s request for an immediate administrative stay of the U.S. Court of International Trade’s order on Wednesday “while this court considers the motions papers.”

So, Wednesday tariffs are blocked. And Thursday they’re reinstated?

Frankly, no one knows at this point if the tariffs will be allowed to be fully implemented or if they will end up being permanently blocked after the court’s review.

And until we know that, we don’t have a way to know if Trump’s trade negotiations with other countries and his overall economic plan will be able to be fully implemented. Or, if they are implemented at all, how that will happen.

Frankly, it’s a giant mess, and it’s causing U.S. businesses to be hesitant about importing anything. They don’t know if tariffs will be in place (or not) to make their order cost substantially more than they were planning on. They don’t want to make huge decisions, like on-shoring their supply chains, if it turns out they don’t need to. 

This uncertainty is just awful for business planning. And it’s not clearing up any time soon.

To make matters worse, there’s an obscure provision in Trump’s big bill that could make matters significantly more complicated…

Is the U.S. becoming hostile to foreign investment?

Legislation currently working its way through Congress has a buried provision I only recently became aware of. No surprise, it’s over 1,000 pages long. Turns out there’s a tax that could turn into a real obstacle for foreign investment in the U.S.

As Bloomberg reported:

The item – introduced in legislation that passed the House last week as Section 899 and titled “Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes” – calls for, among other things, increasing tax rates for individuals and companies from countries whose tax policies the US deems “discriminatory.” 

And if you’re asking, “So, what’s the big deal?”, they continue:

Cloaked in technicalities, the implication of the “revenge” measure, as it’s quickly becoming known, is clear to analysts: If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors at a time when their once ironclad confidence in [the U.S. economy and debt instruments] has already been shaken by Trump’s erratic trade policies and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal accounts.

Because available capital is a huge driver in business growth (and, therefore, economic growth overall), anything that hampers money being loaned to and put into American businesses, especially large amounts of capital that could be accessed if the situation is conducive, could hurt the growth of the U.S. economy.

It’s a difficult situation, and the rapidly changing announcements coming out of both the White House and the court system is making those who would want to do business in the U.S. concerned.

Because capital avoids uncertainty.

And don’t just take my word for it. A report from the European Investment Bank puts it this way:

We find that un­certainty has an economically significant negative effect on capital. Uncer­tainty is found to have an economically significant negative effect on employment growth, as well. 

Uncertainty is bad for business (and bad for us, too)

While it’s true that institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, control a huge part of the money that is used to drive business growth, they aren’t, by any means, the only ones who do that.

In fact, many, many families do the same things.

And, then, there are the businesses themselves which have to figure out the best way to allocate their available funds to make sure that the business is viable over the long term and can grow. If the economy is unstable, it’s incredibly difficult for them to plan, and if they’re unable to effectively plan, how can they know where to use their funds to grow their business?

Economic uncertainty makes planning for the future virtually impossible. Fortunately, there’s a partial solution…

This is exactly why many institutions, central banks and everyday American families diversify their savings with inflation-resistant assets.

Stores of wealth, ones that, history shows, maintain their value over the long term. Regardless of what happens in politics or the economy. Because physical precious metals have intrinsic value that’s recognized and prized around the world.

If you’re ready to begin your due diligence about the benefits of diversifying with precious metals, get our free 2025 Precious Metals Information Kit.

This article was originally published here

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