Can A Ceasefire Escalate? Apparently Yes.

GET METALS NEWS THAT MATTERS

Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bullion.Directory precious metals analysis 24 March, 2026
By Przemysław K. Radomski
Founder of GoldPriceForecast.com

“There is to be no hesitation,” he wrote on Truth Social. He ordered mine sweeping to continue “at a tripled-up level.” Then he claimed “total control” of the Strait: “No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is sealed up tight.”

Minutes later, he reposted a Washington Post opinion piece titled: “Trump doesn’t need a deal to get what he wants from Iran.”

That’s the posture. No urgency. No timeline. No deal needed.

When reporters pressed him at the White House about exceeding his own 4-6 week war timeline (it’s now Day 55), Trump said: “Don’t rush me. I want to make the best deal. I could make a deal right now, but I don’t want to do that. I want to have it everlasting.”

Gold is essentially flat today. Oil pulled back slightly after surging above $106 overnight (Brent, per Al Jazeera). Silver is modestly higher. The dollar is slightly lower. The Nasdaq is leading on the upside.

Shoot to Kill, During a Ceasefire

The shoot-to-kill order on mine-laying boats is the most direct escalation since the blockade began on April 13.

If the IRGC continues deploying mines (the Pentagon says they’ve been doing this since March), this order creates the conditions for kinetic engagement during a supposed ceasefire. One US destroyer sinking an IRGC speedboat caught placing mines would immediately change the conflict’s character.

Italy announced it will deploy two minesweepers, an escort vessel, and a logistics ship to the Strait as part of an international coalition.

Navy chief Berutti Bergotto told RAI: “Obviously we are not acting alone. We are part of an international coalition, and other nations will also send minesweepers.” Over 30 nations met at the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in London this week to plan the multinational mine clearance operation. The Pentagon has said full mine clearance could take up to six months.

BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, said shipping companies need assurances from both Iran AND the US before they will transit the Strait. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety officer, called mines a “particular concern.” That tells you how far the Strait is from reopening. Even if Iran and the US both declared the war over tomorrow, it would take months before commercial traffic returns to normal.

The Strait remains effectively closed. Only 8 ships transited on Wednesday, including 3 oil tankers, according to LSEG tracking data.

Pre-war normal: 100+ ships daily. That’s 8% of normal traffic.

Quoting my yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert:

“The FCX just invalidated its move above the previous highs, thus flashing a major sell signal. Yesterday, it moved back above those highs, but the volume was relatively weaker, and I doubt that this breakout will hold.

The invalidation of the breakout and a weekly close clearly below the previous 2026 highs would set the stage for a powerful decline.”

FCX plunged within an hour after I posted the above. It looks like we’re going to get a clear weekly close below the previous 2026 highs, which sets the stage for a much bigger decline in the following weeks.

This is a sell signal that comes on top of multiple other signals that I discussed previously, and it’s one that’s important for other markets, as FCX tends to move together with copper, gold (no wonder, the company produces both metals), and mining stocks.

While it won’t be the case that FCX drags other markets lower, it could serve as a canary in the coal mine.

This article was originally published here

 Previous Post

$300 Silver? Bank of America Says Maybe

Next Post  

Everyone Agrees It's a Crisis. Gold Still Declines.