Stefan Gleason

With last week’s second 75 basis-point rate hike, the Federal Reserve now claims it has achieved a “neutral” monetary policy stance. That would mean, in theory, that interest rates are neither stimulating nor restraining the economy.

After going essentially straight up for more than a year, the Dollar Index chart is now looking extremely overbought. The Federal Reserve note may be due for a retracement against its foreign counterparts. That will likely spark a rally in metals markets.

All presidents make mistakes, whether it’s failing to limit the growth of the federal budget or being unable to anticipate turns in the economic cycle. But the Biden administration has been unique in consistently getting just about everything wrong while stubbornly refusing to change course.

The U.S. economy appears headed for a hard landing. After months of ignoring the steadily growing inflation problem, the Federal Reserve is now using monetary blunt force to try to rein in rising prices.

The explosion in retail demand for gold has made headlines, but retail investors aren’t the only ones steadily stockpiling the yellow metal. As doubts over currencies increase and as the world becomes increasingly polarized, nations are seeking to hedge their risks with the tried-and-true asset capable of doing so: gold.

Friday’s Consumer Price Index Report sent shockwaves through financial markets. The 8.6% annual reading was yet another new multi-decade high – dealing a body blow to analysts who believed inflation pressures had peaked.

Talk of “peak inflation” is helping to drive investor inflows back into stock and bond markets. As the narrative goes, inflation readings have hit their highs for the year. The Federal Reserve will hike rates until monetary policy “normalizes,” then declare victory over the very problem its policies unleashed.

Central bankers and bureaucrats are seizing on recent turmoil in cryptocurrency markets to push aggressively for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). They made their case to other global elites gathered in Davos on Monday…

Good news for gold holders is that the safe-haven metal is holding up better than conventional financial assets. Stocks are breaking down at the same time as purportedly “risk-free” Treasury bonds are collapsing in value at a rate never before seen

Markets responded to the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated 50 basis-point rate hike yesterday by rallying. Investors breathed a sigh of relief when Fed chairman Jerome Powell said a 75 basis-point future hike is off the table.

Last week’s release of first quarter GDP data was a disappointment, as GDP sank by 1.4%. Analyst expectations were calling for a rise of 1%. The surprise decline may signal a recession ahead. Optimists, however, say the GDP number may not be as bad as it looks.

To begin with, gold and silver are still up for the year overall. By contrast, stock and bond markets are sticking investors with large losses. Investors are finding out the hard way that in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, there are no safe havens in paper assets.

Joe Biden has committed more than his share of mistakes and missteps during the first 15 months of his administration.
Some, including a new federal spending spree combined with decisions to limit U.S. oil production and to weaponize the U.S. dollar against Russia, are contributing to the surge in price inflation.

As Russia appears to be on the verge of defaulting on its debt, the U.S. debt market is also signaling trouble ahead. Treasury bonds, long considered to be among the safest investments, are rapidly plunging in value as yields surge. It could end up being a lost decade – or worse – for bondholders.

With Tax Day coming up and tax hike proposals coming down the pike, investors are eyeing ways to limit Uncle Sam’s take. Last week, President Joe Biden proposed several new tax increases to help pay for his massive $5.8 trillion budget…

Direction, magnitude, and timing are difficult to predict. But precious metals bulls are eying massive upside potential for gold and silver as war and inflation stoke safe-haven buying. What follows are four major macro scenarios that could impact metals markets…

In response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the U.S. and G-7 countries have launched a currency war against the Kremlin. Sanctions imposed on the Russian central bank have effectively blacklisted the country from the U.S. dollar-dominated global financial system.

After rallying over the $2,000/oz milestone this morning, the gold market may now be poised to run to new record highs. A major technical breakout out of last year’s consolidation pattern had already been established in February. A trend change of this significance can be expected to last not days or weeks, but months… perhaps years.

Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints and inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon. Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher.

In an unprecedented move sidestepping normal due process guarantees, Trudeau ordered banks, insurance companies, and even cryptocurrency exchanges to close the accounts of anyone deemed to be involved in the Freedom Convoy.

Both China and Russia play hugely important roles in the global economy. Both face economic sanctions from the United States. And both are eyeing long-term strategies for shifting the locus of global trade away from the Federal Reserve Note “dollar.”

The recent explosion in inflation rates caused by runaway debt-funded federal spending and Fed money printing has sparked renewed interest in state legislatures in the role gold and silver play in hedging against systemic risks.

The U.S. reached a $30 trillion milestone this week. Instead of signifying a great achievement, though, it serves as a dire warning for American workers, investors, and retirees.

Officials in Washington who insist things are looking up in the economy just don’t get it (or, in many cases, are deliberately misleading). Ordinary Americans, however, do get it. They know they are losing out to inflation as 61% of Americans say their family incomes are falling behind their costs of living…

Last week’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports put those measures of inflation at 7.0% and 9.7%, respectively. Manufacturers had to bear the brunt of the inflation surge in 2021. The worst may be yet to come for consumers as producers pass on their costs to wholesalers and retailers.

In uncertain times, diversification is key to being able to survive market turbulence. Every investment advisor under the sun preaches diversification. Unfortunately, conventional asset allocation models prescribe only superficial diversification across stocks and bonds…

As Bitcoin made new all-time highs in recent weeks, an increasing number of investors referred to it as the “new gold.” Cryptos are a far cry from hard money, however, and recent price action may be indicative of why.

In recent days, the Fed announced it would not only begin – but possibly step up – its tapering of monthly bond purchases, and global markets have not liked what they heard with stock indices falling last week and again this week, despite some brief recovery rallies.